Wayne Joseph’s Blog

Running with the Big Dog

Big Dog’s Early Season Boy’s Cross-Country Favorites

BIG DOG’S STATE OF HAWAII X-COUNTRY PREDICTIONS

Cross-country season has started with many of the schools around the state beginning to practice starting on August 2nd and some early season results are in.

Based on last season state championship results and what is going on thus far this season the Big Dog predicts the following:

1)      Margarito Martinez, Leilehua, senior, will repeat as state champion and dominate OIA if he’s still in Hawaii

2)      Pierce Murphy, Island School, senior, state runner-up if Martinez runs and Kauai champ

3)      Jordan Thibodeau, Kamehameha-Kapalama, senior

4)      Dylan Martinez, Leilehua, sophomore

5)      Troy Esaki, Iolani, junior

6)      Nikolai Scharer, Punahou, sophomore

7)      Justin Higa, Iolani, senior,

8)      Zach Ferguson, Maui Prep, senior

9)      Nicola Perez-Garre, Maui, junior (dropped)

10)  Ryan Hobson, Mid Pacific Institute, senior

11)  James Pearson, Baldwin, sophomore

12)  Chad Nakaoka, Hawaii Baptist Academy, senior

13)  Borys Pleskacz, Iolani, senior

14)  Gianni Cuadrado, Kapolei

15)  Casey Ryan, Pearl City

16)  James Pearson, Baldwin, senior

17)  Angelito Cuaremsa, Maui High

18)  Rocky Balala, Maui, junior, MIL champ

Others to watch:  Alex Ortega, Kamehameha-Kapalama; Micah Velasco, Leilehua;  Zachary Carvalho, Mililani; Dino DeSalvio, Maui Prep; Brandon Miya, Leilehua; Joshua Robinson, Honokaa;  Chris Mosch, Honokaa; Brandt Mabuni, Makua Lani;   Kevin Olsen, Keaau; Quentin Penn, Radford;  Mathew Dodge, Campbell.  

With Kamehameha-Kapalama graduating four of their top six runners and the Big Dog being informed about Leilehua I will go out on a limb and predict the Mules to capture the 2010 HHSAA boys title with Iolani second and Punahou taking third.

For previous preseason predictions go to:  https://waynejoseph.wordpress.com/2010/07/30/big-dogs-boys-preseaon-x-c-favorites-for-2010/

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September 8, 2010 - Posted by | High School Runners | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

21 Comments »

  1. Notice a few errors here. James Pearson is correctly stated as Sophomore at Baldwin initially, but then is incorrectly stated as a Senior. Also, Nicola Perez-Garreaud doesn’t attend Maui Prep, he attends Maui High. The point is moot, however, because he quit on his team this year.

    Comment by hzy | September 10, 2010 | Reply

    • The Big Dog does have a lot of guts and dedication to openly post such detailed and specific predictions.

      Comment by Dan | September 11, 2010 | Reply

      • Sorry Dan, but I don’t see how I insulted the Big Dog. I was just trying to help correct some discrepancies that I noticed.
        Do you have anything to add, Dan? Otherwise, you don’t need to defend the Big Dog because I never personally attacked him.

        Comment by hzy | September 11, 2010

      • I don’t see how you attacked the Big Dog.
        I don’t see how I attacked hzy.
        I don’t see how you attacked me.
        So what’s the problem?

        Comment by Dan | September 14, 2010

  2. they sound super fast…good luck guys!!!

    Comment by kat | September 11, 2010 | Reply

  3. Hey Big Dog,

    Let me add that I appreciate all this work and research you put in to provide us with some standings as the cross country season progresses. Your insight is always something that makes the season more exciting.

    Aloha,

    Hzy

    Comment by hzy | September 11, 2010 | Reply

  4. Currently, I believe these are the best teams based on preseason results

    1. Leilehua(total team time of about 1:24:55)based off PC Meet
    2. Pearl City (1:27:55) based off PC meet
    3. Millilani (1:28:00) based off PC meet
    4. Kamehameha (1:28:24) based off Kualoa Meet
    5. Iolani (1:28:32) based off Kualoa Meet
    6. Honoka’a (1:28:54) based off Kea’au meet
    7. HBA (1:32:24)based off Kea’au meet

    Sources

    http://milhsxc.com/2010/PCMeet.htm
    http://hi.milesplit.com/meets/76156/results/129672
    http://hi.milesplit.com/meets/78856/results/130314

    Keep in mind that everything is esimated and the OIA schools had slower times at the Mililani meet due to a tougher course and splitting of the races.

    Comment by Dan | September 14, 2010 | Reply

    • Please let me know of any errors or opinions.

      Comment by Dan | September 14, 2010 | Reply

  5. sorry dan. since your comment was a reply to my post I thought you took exception comments and were defending the big dog.

    Interesting team list as well. While I can’t disagree with the teams you have listed, I would have to put Kamehameha and Iolani before Pearl City and Mililani. I guess things will become more clear after this weekend.

    Comment by hzy | September 15, 2010 | Reply

    • *exception TO MY comments. my bad

      Comment by hzy | September 15, 2010 | Reply

  6. Are those time totals the top 7 runners, Dan? Maybe I did the math wrong but I added up a few of the teams’ times and came up with:

    Leilehua- 125.09
    Pearl City- 124.37
    Mililani-126.17

    Maybe I did it different/wrong. Please correct me if so.

    Comment by hzy | September 15, 2010 | Reply

    • I’m pretty sure Leilehua has a significant lead over all other teams

      Comment by Dan | September 16, 2010 | Reply

  7. Based on times, Leilehua looks like their going to be the favorite this whole season. For girls, i would have to say Grossman will be my favorite. Goodluck to everyone this season!!!

    Comment by ramos | September 15, 2010 | Reply

  8. I believe the competition for the boys runner-up spot in the OIA will be between Pearl City and Mililani, which would force each team to raise the level of its performances, but I agree with hzy, that Kamehameha and Iolani should be ranked above them. Kualoa is also a tough course, so the times may not evenly compare with those from Mililani. One thing the ILH has is depth, so I wouldn’t count those teams out. We may need to wait til the Kaiser Invitational or Punahou Invitational to see all these teams go head to head, since some OIA teams may not be running at the Iolani Invitational.

    Comment by bosco | September 16, 2010 | Reply

  9. I know that several OIA teams including Mililani and Pearl City will not be competing at Kualoa this week. We’ll have to wait until the Kaiser Invitational next week to see all the top Oahu teams. I’ve heard that some coaches don’t want to expose their runners to possible injury due to the course at Kualoa.

    Comment by run4fun | September 16, 2010 | Reply

  10. Funny you should mention comparing times, as last years Kualoa course was considerably short of 3 miles, resulting in almost every participant getting a SB time. I wonder if they have an accurately measured 3 mile course this year?

    Comment by run4fun | September 16, 2010 | Reply

  11. Last weeks ILH meet was run at Kualoa, right? Is that the same course? If so, the times look pretty legit.

    Also have to agree with ramos about Grossman. I’ve gotten to watch her smoke the MIL field and she runs a lot like Margarito- all out to win from the start. She will be different from her sister because she will force the other girls to keep up with her rather than running a more tactical race. From what I’ve seen, I will be surprised if any girl can keep up with her.

    Comment by hzy | September 16, 2010 | Reply

  12. I got:
    Leilehua: 84.896 minutes
    Pearl City: 87.832
    Mililani: 88.016

    Comment by Dan | September 17, 2010 | Reply

  13. Hzy,

    Last weeks ILH meet was at Kaawaa and was only 2 miles. As for Grossman, there are a couple Oahu runners that will give her some competition for sure. I think she has been a bit overhyped so early in the season without any meets of consequence. Just my opinion.

    Comment by Run 4 Fun | September 17, 2010 | Reply

  14. Run4Fun,

    There was also a 3 mile race last weekend that had Thibodeau finishing ahead of a group of Dana Hills runners. Was this at Kaawaa also?

    Comment by hzy | September 17, 2010 | Reply

  15. Hzy,

    Yes, they had a 3 mile at Kaawaa as well as an open 2 mile race for boys and girls. Punahou ran all their Varsity girls in the 2 mile race instead of the 3 mile. That course is a measured 3 miles as far as I know. It’s last years Kualoa course that was short for some reason. Prior races at Kualoa were not short of 3 miles, just last year’s.

    Comment by run4fun | September 17, 2010 | Reply


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